1 Huge Consumer Trend That Could Make You Rich
By Jeremy Bowman | More Articles
June 1, 2012 | Comments (2)
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New York Mayor and public health crusader Michael Bloomberg struck another blow in the soda wars Thursday. Bloomberg, whose battle against smoking has gone as far as banning it from city parks, now seeks to limit the size of non-diet soda and other sugary drinks that can be sold in food-service establishments. All sweetened drinks including fountain soda, bottled soda, sweetened iced teas, and fruit drinks above 16 ounces would be banned at places such as restaurants, movie theaters, food carts, and sports events. The proposal awaits the approval of the City Board of Health, which is expected as all the members have been appointed by Bloomberg.
In the past, other municipalities have proposed "soda taxes," but this is the first outright ban or restriction on sales to be announced. Unsurprisingly, the New York City Beverage Association came out and condemned the decision. In a statement, the group said, "The New York City Health Dept.'s unhealthy obsession with soft drinks is again pushing them over the top. The city is not going to address the obesity issue by attacking soda because soda is not driving the obesity rates." Both McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) and Coca-Cola released similar statements.
Though the decision only applies to New York City, Bloomberg's public health initiatives have caught on in other communities in the past, which include a ban on artificial trans fats in restaurants and a requirement that restaurant chains post calorie counts next to menu items.
The writing's on the wall
Mayor Bloomberg isn't the only prominent public figure on the front lines of the obesity battle. First Lady Michelle Obama has been a constant advocate for better public health by recruiting supermarkets to set up shop in "food deserts," planting a vegetable garden at the White House, about which she recently published a book, and her Let's Move campaign, which encourages kids to be more active.
Like smoking a generation ago, it appears the tide is mounting against the obesity epidemic in general and soda consumption in particular. In May, Richmond, Calif. became the latest municipality to propose a penny-per-ounce soda tax, which will go on November's ballot. Showing the trend is far from a stateside phenomenon, three health experts at Oxford University recently called for a 20% tax on soda in the U.K., Europe's fattest country.
Like indoor public smoking bans, which began in California in 1995 and now affects 80% of the American population, anti-soda legislation is only likely to spread.
It's not just soda
Healthier eating has been on the rise for some time now. Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFM ) has been one of the great growth stories in the food industry in recent times. The stock has shot up about 1,000% since its recession-era bottom, and it shows little sign of abating.
Other figures point to the shift to organic and healthier eating. Demand for organic milk has exhausted supply at times, and sales of the high-priced substitute grew by 16% last year. Similarly, Greek yogurt, a healthier alternative to traditional yogurt, has come virtually out of nowhere as brands like Chobani take up more and more shelf space in supermarkets. Sales have soared 2,500% since 2006 and now claim 19% of the overall yogurt market share. The boom has even revamped the dairy industry and, in turn, the struggling local economy in upstate New York.
The rise of farmers markets in the U.S., which have more than doubled over the past decade, and Community Support Agriculture (CSAs), where participants pay for a share of a farm's harvest to be delivered directly to them, also speak to the healthy eating trend. Echoing Whole Foods success, The Fresh Market reached a new 52-week high Thursday on the back of an impressive earnings beat. Revenue grew 23% while net income jumped 43%, and same-store sales charged forward at a 8.2% clip.
Two fries short of a happy meal
The fallout from this trend is clear. Total domestic soda sales are down to 1996 levels, and per capita consumption has not been this low since 1987. Legislation such as Bloomberg's size restriction or the Richmond tax is only going to make the road ahead tougher on the big beverage companies like Coke and Pepsi (NYSE: PEP ) . Tropicana, a Pepsi subsidiary, now faces a lawsuit claiming it should not be able to call itself "natural" because it uses chemically engineered "flavor packs."
Fast food chains like McDonald's and other restaurants could also get squeezed by anti-soda legislation, especially since soda is one of the highest-margin products that restaurants sell, but at least they have the option to offer healthier items. The Golden Arches have already adopted this strategy, offering more salads over the years and, more recently, apples in happy meals.
The potential winners I'll be watching, along with the fresh grocers above include recent IPO Annie's (Nasdaq: BNNY ) , maker of organic packaged foods. Shares of the food-maker are up about 30% since trading began two months ago. I'm also interested to see how Starbucks' acquisition of Evolution Fresh plays out. The coffee king purchased the bottled juice maker last November and opened its first Evolution Fresh store in March, outside of Seattle. Fresh-squeezed juice is an obvious healthy substitute for soda, but the hefty price tag could scare off consumers. Finally, I think this shift will also drive healthy lifestyle brands outside of the food and beverage industry such as lululemon athletica (Nasdaq: LULU ) . The retailer of premium exercise gear is synonymous with yoga, and as people turn to healthier eating they'll be more likely to look for a way to stay active. The company's success is reflected by The Gap's decision to imitate it with its Athleta brand, which has sprouted up near several lululemon locations across the country.
As this trend is being driven primarily by young urbanites, it should only grow as that demographic settles down and starts families. Now is the time to get invested.
One more trend you should know about it
Healthy eating isn't the only trend with the potential to upset whole industries. There is a new technology that threatens to change virtually everything about the manufacturing sector. It could be the most disruptive innovation of our time, making factory workers obsolete and bringing manufacturing back to American shores. It's called 3-D printing, and I highly encourage you to watch the Fool's new free video all about it. It explains not only how 3-D printing works and what its effects will be, but also recommends three investments that are sure to take off as adoption increases. Get your copy of our special free report, "3 Stocks to Own for the New Industrial Revolution," before it's gone for good. All you have to do is click right here.
Andy's ETF觀點:定期定值-一個超越定期定額的投資方法
延續上次有關文章" Andy's 主動投資的 " 被動 " 觀點" 我們接著探討有關類似定時定額的操作性方法,今天介紹定期定值的方法,這個方法是 寰宇共同基金出版社出版的一本"定期定值投資策略 ",作者是前摩根史坦利的總經理 Michael E.Edleson ,整本書有較多的數學式 , 對第一次閱讀者 具有一定的難度 , 我嘗試用 我的理解設計了 EXCEL , 讓各位可以更容易理解這個定期定值的方法 首先 , 先看看投資這件事 , 在上次 Andy's 主動投資的被動觀點文章中 , 已經提過 賠錢有幾個因素,就是不好的標的 + 不好的價格 , 如果是一檔不好的標的 , 如 地雷股 , 則透過什麼樣的價格去買賣 , 原則上都無法取的長期的獲利 , 因此一定 不適合 ” 單筆投資 , 買進就持有 ”, ” 定期定額 ”,” 定期不定額 ”,” 定期定值等方法 ”, 要避開地雷股的方法有兩種 , 一種就是你有不錯的眼光 , 可以避開地雷股 ( 有關如何避開 , 我已在上次文章內說明 ), 另一種就是投資一個 ” 廣泛性的分散投資組合 ”, 原則上全球型 大的區域型基金 就是你可以挑選的標的 , 個人認為許多股票指數型基金 (ETF) 特別適用於這個方法 , 因此這些 ETF 管理費 , 手續費低廉 , 甚至國外券商已經有零手續的 ETF 可以投資 其次 , 這種 定期定值 的方法 , 更像是一個人生 理財目標的達成 過程 , 對許多人來說 , 透過每期的儲蓄 , 累積一定年期 , 達到想要的夢想 , 如買房 , 買車 , 教育基金 , 退休基金等 , 而且這個方法普遍來說比定期定額績效更好 風險更低 , 因為 這個方法屬於機械性的逢高賣出 逢低加碼的做法 . 而定期定額頂多在高檔時少買 , 無法減碼。 第三 , 這個方法需要固定期間 ( 如每半年或一年 ) 去調整投資股數 , 對一個不斷變動的投資市場 , 適度的調整投入金額 , 更可以確保理財目標被達成 。 我們來看一下單筆投入 定時定額跟定時定值的威力 下圖是北美股票型基金 ETF- VTI 的走勢圖 , 綠線代表單筆投資 ( 也就是收盤價 ), 左圖紅線代表定時定額 , 右圖紅線代表定時定值 , 各位可以很清楚看到對
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